Applying Anticipatory Science Methods (ASM)

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Applying Anticipatory Science Methods (ASM)

By www.users.qwest.net/~nhueser/futuresocdev.html
Monday, August 12, 2002
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Walden University
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World Future Society

Winning Decisions
(Currency/Doubleday)
By J. Edward Russo and Paul J.H. Schoemaker

It's safe to say that we now live in an era of tough decisions.
Which new projects should be discontinued?
How many folks should be laid off? Who gets a pay cut?

It's ugly out there. Authors Russo and Schoemaker, both business school professors in the field of behavioral science, want to help you weigh the options. Through their research, they've discovered that most of us tend to make decisions based on personal biases rather than taking a more empirical approach.

To counter this tendency, the authors say, busy executives should make decisions by canvassing more people, heeding the words of dissenters, and asking what is at stake -- what's really at stake. Also, the decision-making process should be an opportunity to expand the range of alternatives -- to see options beyond the immediate choices.

Simple example: When Encyclopaedia Britannica faced the decision of whether to move its product onto CD-ROM, could the company have shifted its identity from book publisher to knowledge provider?

Modern Social Theories of Change

This paper has these sections:
[1] An overview of the modern structural functional theories
of Talcott Parsons (1951) and how they can be used in the study of social change.

[2] Theories of technology transfer, including modernization theory
and how it has evolved into a theory of sustainable development.

[3] Theories of futures forecasting that have evolved
into a new field of study called anticipatory science.

[4] A summary section discussing common themes
and future directions needed to achieve social change.

Summary of (Behavior Change) Methods Used
by Researchers to Apply Anticipatory Science:

Methodology

Type

Procedure

Studies

Demographics

Numerical Method

Trend

Regression Analysis

Time Series

World Bank

United Nations

Malthus

Survey Methods

Census

Numerical Method

Count, Estimation

10 Year

Survey

Qualitative

Quantitative

Interview - follow up questions possible

Paper or Phone

Most Common, attitude, preference, rank order

Survey - Delphi consensus forecast

Quantitative and qualitative

Formulate research questions, four rounds with feedback

RAND Corp

Gordon, Helmer, Dalkey

Survey -Cross impact analysis

Quantitative & Qualitative

Modified Delphi with matrix analysis

Gordon & Helmer

Simulation & Computer modeling

Mathematical models designed to simulate society

Simulation allows multiple trials with different starting values

Meadow, Meadows & Randers(1992)

Game theory

Simulation with decision making

Allows non-rational decision making

Shubik (1975)

Guetzkow (1963)

Screen

Qualitative

Review of literature

Naisbitt (1982)

Minkin (1995)

Meta Analysis

Quantitative

Qualitative

Computer count & regression analysis

Naisbitt (1982)

Scenario construction

Qualitative

Hybrid expert opinion of key industry leaders

Private consulting Minkin (1982)

Source: http://www.users.qwest.net/~nhueser/futuresocdev.html

Leaders choose, creates, convince and cause . . .
The Absolutes of Leadership

Business 2.0 - Magazine Article - Quick Study
... Decisions (Currency/Doubleday)
By J. Edward Russo
... say, busy executives should make decisions
... Is the Killer App (Crown Business; due out February 2002 ...

Nicholas G. Hueser, M.S.
March 27, 1998
The Graduate School of America
@ http://www.users.qwest.net/~nhueser/futuresocdev.html
Leadership is deliberately causing people-driven actions
in a planned way to accomplish the leaders agenda . . .

ACCTTS-LLC (C) 2002:
IPTTS Dimensions Overview
... The Absolutes of Leadership. . ... Risk Factors - Details
3. Coping Controls 4. Investigating Skills 5. Resolving Concerns
6. Litigation Support © 2001-2002 ACCTTS-LLC ...
@ www.acctts.com/dimensio.html

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Methodology	Type	Procedure	Studies
Demographics	Numerical Method Trend	Regression Analysis Time Series	World Bank United Nations Malthus
Survey Methods
Census	Numerical Method	Count, Estimation	10 Year
Survey	Qualitative Quantitative	Interview - follow up questions possible Paper or Phone	Most Common, attitude, preference, rank order
Survey - Delphi consensus forecast	Quantitative and qualitative	Formulate research questions, four rounds with feedback	RAND Corp Gordon, Helmer, Dalkey
Survey -Cross impact analysis	Quantitative & Qualitative	Modified Delphi with matrix analysis	Gordon & Helmer
Simulation & Computer modeling	Mathematical models designed to simulate society	Simulation allows multiple trials with different starting values	Meadow, Meadows & Randers(1992)
Game theory	Simulation with decision making	Allows non-rational decision making	Shubik (1975) Guetzkow (1963)
Screen	Qualitative	Review of literature	Naisbitt (1982) Minkin (1995)
Meta Analysis	Quantitative Qualitative	Computer count & regression analysis	Naisbitt (1982)
Scenario construction	Qualitative	Hybrid expert opinion of key industry leaders	Private consulting Minkin (1982)